← Group I

Group I · NOR · outside top-16

Norway

Strength

78.3

± 2.0

Attack

81.2

0–100

Defense

76.4

0–100

P(champion)

0.98%

2.6% reach final

Strength trajectory

74.6 → 78.2 · +3.6

2023-03-31 range 74.3–78.2 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.98%

to lift

Polymarket

6.0%

implied · -5.0pp

Kalshi

6.3%

implied · -5.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-26.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.9%

R16

36.4%

Quarter

15.7%

Semi

6.6%

Final

2.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Ullevaal Stadion

Oslo · 27,182 seats (WC avg 55,865; -28,683)

Age profile

mean 25.9 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 Ø. Nyland €900k 35 yr

Sevilla · La Liga

79 caps · 29 since 2024 (7.108411214953271rtg)
13 E. Selvik €1.3M 28 yr

Watford · Championship

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.6174311926605505rtg)
12 S. Tangvik 23 yr

Rosenborg · Eliteserien

DEF Defenders · 10

3 K. Ajer €16.0M 27 yr

Brentford · Premier League

60 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.771219512195122rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.66 rtg
26 J. Ryerson €20.0M 28 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

50 caps · 2G · 28 since 2024 (2G/10A · 7.133947368421053rtg) | club 0G · 15A · 7.11 rtg
4 L. Østigård €10.0M 26 yr

Genoa · Serie A

45 caps · 2G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.2635000000000005rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
16 M. Pedersen €3.5M 25 yr

Torino · Serie A

38 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6452471482889734rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.56 rtg
5 D. Møller Wolfe €4.5M 23 yr

Wolves · Premier League

30 caps · 2G · 29 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.864840989399293rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
14 F. Aursnes 30 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

29 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.751685393258427rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.16 rtg
15 F. Bjørkan €1.8M 27 yr

Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien

23 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.184615384615384rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.43 rtg
17 T. Heggem €13.0M 26 yr

Bologna · Serie A

23 caps · 23 since 2024 (6.672073578595318rtg)

+ 2 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 8

18 K. Thorstvedt €8.0M 26 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

77 caps · 6G · 52 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.438rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 6.88 rtg
10 M. Ødegaard 27 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

75 caps · 5G · 20 since 2024 (2G/15A · 7.16388384754991rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 7.01 rtg
8 S. Berge €25.0M 27 yr

Fulham · Premier League

74 caps · 1G · 32 since 2024 (1G/7A · 7.084390243902439rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
20 A. Nusa €32.0M 20 yr

RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

31 caps · 10G · 27 since 2024 (9G/4A · 6.9960739030023085rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.1 rtg
6 P. Berg €4.5M 28 yr

Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien

52 caps · 30 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.862932790224032rtg) | club 5G · 12A · 7.89 rtg
2 M. Thorsby €3.0M 29 yr

Genoa · Serie A

33 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.237500000000001rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
19 T. Aasgaard 23 yr

Rangers · Premiership

11 caps · 6G · 11 since 2024 (6G/2A · 7.414705882352941rtg) | club 7G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
23 J. Hauge €2.5M 26 yr

Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien

19 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.402500000000001rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 7.64 rtg

ATT Attackers · 5

9 E. Haaland Top scorer €200.0M 25 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

57 caps · 64G · 28 since 2024 (37G/3A · 7.674301675977654rtg) | club 27G · 8A · 7.31 rtg
7 A. Sørloth €20.0M 30 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

86 caps · 28G · 29 since 2024 (11G/5A · 6.56021052631579rtg) | club 13G · 6.81 rtg
11 J. Strand Larsen €40.0M 25 yr

Wolves · Premier League

31 caps · 8G · 20 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.542780748663102rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.37 rtg
22 Oscar Bobb €25.0M 22 yr

Fulham · Premier League

27 caps · 2G · 23 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.096825396825396rtg)
21 A. Schjelderup €14.0M 21 yr

Benfica · Primeira Liga

21 caps · 2G · 21 since 2024 (2G/6A · 7.332098765432098rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 7.33 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

24 S. Langås 24 yr

Derby · 18c/1g
25 H. Falchener 22 yr

Viking · 2c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–2 vs ENG

W 2–1 @ BRA

W 2–1 @ CIV

L 1–4 v FRA

W 3–2 v SEN

W 4–1 v IRQ

Group fixtures

4 matches

Date	Match	P(NOR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	A vs Iraq (IRQ)	65.1%	20.9%
2026-06-22	H vs Senegal (SEN)	38.6%	26.6%
2026-06-26	H vs France (FRA)	21.5%	23.5%
2026-06-30	A vs Ivory Coast (CIV)	36.8%	25.4%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€459.8M

Rank in the field

11 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

75.1/100

vs model strength -3.2

Top-5 leagues

55%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	23.1%	100
Eliteserien	Norway	5	23.1%	45
Serie A	Italy	5	19.2%	88
Championship	England	2	10.5%	55
Bundesliga	Germany	2	8.2%	90
Primeira Liga	Portugal	2	7.7%	70
La Liga	Spain	2	4.6%	95
Premiership	Scotland	1	3.5%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-15 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: M. Pedersen.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Norway (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.