← Group H

Group H · ESP

Spain

Strength

87.5

± 1.8

Attack

87.5

0–100

Defense

87.4

0–100

P(champion)

14.18%

22.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

85.7 → 86.8 · +1.1

2023-03-31 range 85.7–86.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

14.18%

to lift

Polymarket

100.0%

implied · -85.8pp

Kalshi

58.9%

implied · -44.7pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-26.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

70.1%

R16

69.9%

Quarter

48.0%

Semi

34.8%

Final

22.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Bernabéu

Madrid · 83,186 seats (WC avg 55,865; +27,321)

Age profile

mean 25.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 Unai Simón €30.0M 28 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

68 caps · 24 since 2024 (7.128571428571429rtg)
1 David Raya €35.0M 30 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

12 caps · 9 since 2024 (7.1rtg)
13 Joan García €30.0M 24 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.7rtg)

DEF Defenders · 7

14 Aymeric Laporte €20.0M 31 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

58 caps · 3G · 26 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.472700296735906rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.85 rtg
24 Marc Cucurella €50.0M 27 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

28 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/4A · 7.071428571428571rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.68 rtg
12 Pedro Porro €40.0M 26 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

20 caps · 2G · 18 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.455125725338491rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.89 rtg
4 Eric García 24 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

22 caps | club 1G · 2A · 7.06 rtg
22 Pau Cubarsí Paredes €30.0M 18 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

18 caps · 18 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.557142857142857rtg) | club 1G · 7.21 rtg
3 Álex Grimaldo €24.0M 30 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.65rtg) | club 8G · 8A · 7.32 rtg
2 Marc Pubill 22 yr

Atletico Madrid · La Liga

| club 1G · 1A · 7.11 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

7 Ferran Torres €30.0M 25 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

69 caps · 26G · 23 since 2024 (6G/4A · 6.514074074074074rtg) | club 16G · 2A · 6.83 rtg
10 Dani Olmo €60.0M 27 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

55 caps · 11G · 23 since 2024 (5G/6A · 7.098494623655914rtg) | club 7G · 8A · 7.03 rtg
6 Mikel Merino 29 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

47 caps · 12G · 28 since 2024 (11G/0A · 6.677005347593583rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.86 rtg
16 Rodri €75.0M 29 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

64 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.695215311004784rtg) | club 1G · 7.46 rtg
20 Pedri €80.0M 23 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

51 caps · 5G · 27 since 2024 (5G/3A · 7.341950113378684rtg) | club 2G · 9A · 7.54 rtg
8 Fabián Ruiz 29 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

40 caps · 6G · 25 since 2024 (6G/4A · 7.110074626865671rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.11 rtg
19 Lamine Yamal €120.0M 18 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

30 caps · 7G · 26 since 2024 (5G/8A · 7.147272727272727rtg) | club 16G · 11A · 7.95 rtg
11 Yeremy Pino €30.0M 23 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

23 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.421052631578948rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.86 rtg
18 Martín Zubimendi Top minutes €50.0M 26 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

23 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.31rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.06 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

21 Mikel Oyarzabal Top scorer €25.0M 28 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

51 caps · 27G · 31 since 2024 (22G/8A · 7.137016574585635rtg) | club 15G · 4A · 7.08 rtg
17 Nico Williams 23 yr

Athletic Club · La Liga

33 caps · 6G · 22 since 2024 (4G/3A · 6.385526315789474rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
9 Gavi 21 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

30 caps · 5G · 3 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.858865248226951rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.87 rtg
26 Borja Iglesias €5.0M 32 yr

Celta Vigo · La Liga

8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.5rtg) | club 14G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
25 Víctor Muñoz €30.0M 22 yr

Osasuna · La Liga

2 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.3rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 6.89 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

18 Martín Zubimendi 26 yr

Arsenal · 23c/3g
15 Álex Baena 24 yr

Atletico Madrid · 21c/3g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–0 @ FRA

W 2–1 vs BEL

W 1–0 @ POR

W 3–0 vs AUT

W 1–0 v URU

W 4–0 v KSA

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ESP win)	P(draw)
2026-06-15	H vs Cape Verde (CPV)	75.9%	17.1%
2026-06-21	H vs Saudi Arabia (KSA)	76.4%	16.9%
2026-06-26	A vs Uruguay (URU)	51.8%	28.0%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€989.0M

Rank in the field

3 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

95.9/100

vs model strength +8.4

Top-5 leagues

100%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
La Liga	Spain	17	64.5%	95
Premier League	England	7	29.1%	100
Bundesliga	Germany	1	4.4%	90
Ligue 1	France	1	2.0%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-15 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +8.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Spain (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.